Neutral validation sheet • No math required

Three Simple Sky & Sea Checks (Fall 2025)

These are future-dated, falsifiable observations you can run yourself in New York City (or adjust for your location). Each test uses your senses + public data. No prior context required.

How to Use This Page

  1. Pick a test. Each has dates, a clear prediction, and links to independent sources.
  2. Write down what you observe (use the mini log below).
  3. Decide for yourself: If a prediction fails, discard it. If it holds, you’ve independently verified a claim without needing anyone’s interpretation.

Timezone note: examples below assume America/New_York. If you’re elsewhere, use local times on the linked reference pages.

Test 1 — Supermoon Size Comparison (Nov 5 and Dec 4, 2025)

Prediction: On Nov 5, 2025 (and again Dec 4, 2025), the full Moon will appear larger than a typical full Moon. If you photograph the Moon with the same phone, zoom, and framing, its pixel diameter on these dates should be roughly ~7–14% larger than a non-super full Moon captured this fall (e.g., early October 2025).

How to Run It

  • Use the same device + zoom level each night. Handheld is OK; steadier is better.
  • Take one reference photo around a non-super full Moon (e.g., Oct 7, 2025).
  • Take comparison photos on Nov 5 and (optional) Dec 4.
  • Open images in any editor and measure the Moon’s pixel diameter; compare percentages.

Independent Sources

Test 2 — Tide Range Spike Near Perigean Full Moon (Nov 5–7 vs mid-Nov 2025)

Prediction: At the NYC NOAA station 8518750 (The Battery), the daily tidal range (High minus Low) on Nov 5–7, 2025 (spring tide near supermoon) will be meaningfully larger than the range during a neap-tide window around the quarter phase (e.g., ~Nov 12–14). Expect at least a ~15% bump in average range on the spring-tide days.

How to Run It

  • Open NOAA tides for station 8518750 on the dates above.
  • Record each day’s Predicted High and Predicted Low heights (units don’t matter for differences).
  • Compute simple range: range = High − Low for each day.
  • Compare the average range of Nov 5–7 vs Nov 12–14.

Independent Sources

Test 3 — Moonrise/Sunset Lock & Daily Lag (Nov 4–7, 2025)

Prediction: In NYC on the Full Moon day (Nov 5, 2025), moonrise will occur within ~10 minutes of local sunset. On the following evenings (Nov 6–7), the moonrise time will be roughly 45–55 minutes later each day (the usual lunar daily lag).

How to Run It

  • Look up NYC sunset and moonrise times for Nov 4–7, 2025.
  • Confirm near-coincidence on Nov 5 (within ~10 minutes).
  • Note the ~50-minute moonrise delay on Nov 6 and again on Nov 7.

Independent Sources

Mini Observation Log

Dates & Notes

  • Date: __________ • Test: __________ • Observation: __________________________
  • Date: __________ • Test: __________ • Observation: __________________________
  • Date: __________ • Test: __________ • Observation: __________________________
  • Date: __________ • Test: __________ • Observation: __________________________

Verdict (your call)

  • Prediction held / failed: __________________________
  • Confidence (0–100%): __________________________
  • Would you rerun or try a variant? __________________________

FAQ (Short)

Do I need special tools? No. A phone camera (Test 1) and a web browser are enough.

What if weather blocks observations? Use the linked data tables. You can still validate the timing and tide ranges.

Why these dates? They’re future events visible in publicly maintained tables, so outcomes aren’t influenced by anyone’s interpretation.